Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 1.327107 1.391461 1.457914 1.531810 1.611861 1.696159 1.791897
2025-10-26 1.227596 1.319105 1.417422 1.531486 1.660916 1.804109 1.975757
2025-11-02 1.160414 1.267347 1.385335 1.526277 1.691545 1.881095 2.117773
2025-11-09 1.099426 1.215478 1.346135 1.505770 1.697863 1.924675 2.217613
2025-11-16 1.048814 1.171162 1.311216 1.485593 1.700095 1.959831 2.305502
2025-11-23 1.015399 1.144335 1.294223 1.484184 1.722815 2.018923 2.424890
2025-11-30 0.991447 1.126967 1.286805 1.492813 1.756890 2.092514 2.566535
2025-12-07 0.957709 1.095949 1.260859 1.476268 1.756928 2.120677 2.647294
2025-12-14 0.922538 1.061607 1.229087 1.450333 1.742617 2.127870 2.697836
2025-12-21 0.895935 1.036723 1.207884 1.436568 1.742954 2.153846 2.775630
2025-12-28 0.883208 1.028488 1.207037 1.448741 1.777936 2.228560 2.929289
2026-01-04 0.865477 1.013194 1.196403 1.447185 1.793585 2.276269 3.045110
2026-01-11 0.852809 1.004358 1.194275 1.457563 1.827200 2.353101 3.215135
2026-01-18 0.835605 0.989136 1.183250 1.455328 1.842765 2.404237 3.348652
2026-01-25 0.818551 0.973483 1.170966 1.450586 1.854070 2.449048 3.474942
2026-02-01 0.796997 0.951288 1.149203 1.431669 1.843538 2.459363 3.542741
2026-02-08 0.776742 0.930232 1.128280 1.413045 1.832372 2.467659 3.607099
2026-02-15 0.764065 0.918810 1.119921 1.411744 1.846737 2.516722 3.748298
2026-02-22 0.755458 0.912506 1.118214 1.419711 1.875214 2.589838 3.940698
2026-03-01 0.738978 0.895218 1.100926 1.404434 1.867128 2.602134 4.018456
2026-03-08 0.720175 0.874379 1.078208 1.380472 1.844468 2.588678 4.044437
2026-03-15 0.706065 0.859581 1.063481 1.367746 1.838828 2.603529 4.127957
2026-03-22 0.700735 0.856554 1.065009 1.379000 1.871475 2.685701 4.357274